CRAIG'S DECLINE
Depopulation in Moffat County
The effects of rural depopulation are acutely evident in places like Craig, the population center in Moffat County, Colorado, which is the northwestern-most corner of Colorado, bordering Utah and Wyoming. The population has decreased by 5% since 2008, while the state's population has increased nearly 20%. Moffat County has historically been an agricultural and mining community, with some recreational tourism. The coal mines in the area currently primarily serve the Craig Station Power Plant, which is reducing its reliance on coal and both the mines and the power plant itself are impacted. Oil shale extraction is centered in the Piceance Basin, which is west and south of Moffat County and Moffat County realizes no economic benefit from it. Gas production and pipeline construction happens in Moffat County, but has not generated permanent jobs. The other main industry, agriculture, has also been declining. Moffat County was home to large sheep and cattle ranches, which have fallen prey to current trends. There were approximately 86,000 sheep in Moffat County in 2002 according to the USDA Census. By 2007, that number had dropped to 43,000 and by 2012, the number dropped again to 33,000. Cattle numbers went up slightly during the same period, but insufficiently to have consequent benefits. Accordingly, jobs in both mining and agriculture are less and less available, and the service and product businesses that support those industries have also been impacted. Small businesses have begun to close down, and chains have pulled out (Safeway and KMart). Unemployment has risen and the population has dropped. People are leaving because they do not have the jobs and opportunities that would cause them to stay. Fewer residents now have a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Houses are vacant, and some businesses are boarded up. Real estate values have plummeted. The overall tax base is lower, including severance taxes from the extractive industries. With fewer jobs and fewer people and businesses paying taxes in the county, infrastructure funding in general and school funding in particular have also suffered. The quality of the schools have gone down because of that funding crisis. In short, Moffat County is losing its economic base.
Source: Associated Governments of Northwest Colorado
Moffat County Economy
Although Moffat County is the second largest of the 64 counties in Colorado with 4,743 square miles of land, it contributed less than 0.5% of the inflation-adjusted dollars generated from goods and services in Colorado in 2015. Based on a study done in 2015, most of the states’ GDP comes from only 10 counties in the northern Front Range. Specifically, Denver and Arapahoe counties account for 85% of economic activity meaning the remaining 54 counties only contribute 15% of the GDP. Moffat County ranks 24th in terms of GDP contribution.
Source: Denver Post
Coal Industry Decline's Impact
Moffat County is highly dependent upon the electricity generation industry, specifically coal. The highest paying jobs and largest employers are all associated with the industry either directly or indirectly. Craig, the county’s largest town, has one of the largest power plants in the state called Tri State Generation, which is supplied by coal from two local mines, Trapper and Colowyo. The combination of the power plant and the two local mines makes the coal industry the largest component of GDP and the largest industry for employment in the County. As the chart below shows, coal production both nationally and in Colorado has been on a relatively steady decline since 2004 - Moffat County has been particularly hard hit from this decline. Therefore, as the state’s coal production decreases, Moffat County suffers.
Source: Colorado Public Radio
The coal production from the two mines was cut in half between 2008 and 2018 as shown in the graphs below.
17,266,677 tons of coal were produced on federal land in Colorado in 2009.
5,429,432 tons of coal were produced on federal land in Colorado in 2018.
Source: US Department of the Interior
Job Loss
The decline in coal production has led to a loss of jobs in the industry. In fact, the number of jobs in the coal industry declined by over 30%. Utilities and management of utility companies account for 7% of jobs but 16% of wages. Combined, these two sectors account for 34% of wages. Total average wages in Moffat County would be 20%, or $179 lower per week if wages from the mining and utilities industry are subtracted out.
Per Capita Income
As the well paid jobs have declined, the per capita income has similarly declined. Between 2000 and 2018, the per capita income adjusted for inflation in Moffat County decreased 19% while the per capita income in Colorado increased 40%.
Tax Impact
The declining coal industry has not only contributed to the employment decline, but also caused a steady decline in tax revenue to the County. Taxpayers, property taxes and production tax have all been negatively impacted. In 2018, all of Moffat County’s top 10 taxpayers were connected to the energy industry either through mining or production; 53% of property tax revenue was derived from properties such as the power plant and interstate pipelines; and, lastly, production tax revenue from coal, oil and gas production, which comprises 19% of the county's 2016 tax revenue, decreases as production decreases.
Agriculture
Agriculture is not doing much better. The County benefits from more than two million acres of public land, a large part of which is used for the local grass-fed beef and sheep industries. However, between 2012 and 2017, the number of farms and ranches fell by 6% (following a 2% change in the previous five years), and farm related income fell by 3%. In 2017, 35% of the farmers and ranchers in the county were age 65 or older.
Education
From 2009 to 2014, the population aged twenty-five years or older fell by 302 while the number with a bachelor’s degree or higher fell by 362. The data indicates that not only are the majority of students leaving to obtain bachelor’s degrees and not returning to the County, but 18% of those holding bachelor’s degrees left the County. This ‘brain drain’ is a significant threat as the economy of the future will be ever more dependent on information and technology to create new jobs. As of 2018, only 17.2% of the residents have a BA or higher.
Moffat County has seen a corresponding decline in school enrollment, which mirrors the decline in overall population decline since 2010. Since 2011, the school has lost a total of 80 students. Only 26% of students in Moffat County schools are proficient in Reading compared to the states rate of 46%. Only 15% of Moffat County students are proficient in math.
Craig's Culture
The people of Craig have a rich agricultural history, and today’s culture grows from those roots. Many of the current residents’ ancestors moved to Craig in the early 1900s to homestead ranch land. The early years were trying ones, as Craig’s ranchers lived in the crossfires of the range wars, a violent dispute between sheep and cattle ranchers over grazing rights on public and private lands. In those early years, the region was also popular for elk hunting, and the area is still known as the “elk hunting capital of the world.” In the 1970s, several large coal mines opened, and construction started on a large coal-fired power plant, drawing mining and industrial workers to the area. Though many of the early immigrants to Craig were Greek and Basque—and, to this day, Moffat County has the tenth highest population of Greek Orthodox residents in the country—Latin American immigration increased significantly in the 2000s, with the Hispanic population growing from 9.4% to 16% between 2000 and 2018.
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Today, Craig is a hodgepodge of all of these histories and influences. As Craig residents send their children to a single public high school, shop at a single grocery store, and see movies at a single movie theater, their paths cross often. But, given the town’s small size and limited population of professionals like doctors and lawyers, its residents rely on the services and resources of neighboring towns, ranging from the nearby ski town of Steamboat Springs to cities like Grand Junction and Denver, which is over 200 miles away.
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But Craig residents pride themselves on preserving a distinct culture steeped in the town’s history. Because Craig was populated for decades primarily by people in agriculture and by outdoorsman, Craig residents knew hard work and valued close relationships to the land, which heavily influences the culture even today. The highway signs at the Moffat County line welcome drivers to “the Real West” and the place “Where the West Stayed Wild.” Residents tell stories about cowboy outlaws who sheltered in the county’s cliff sides, and the agricultural origins are celebrated at the annual “Grand Old West Days” festival and at professional and amateur rodeos.